Make the playoffs · as of Thu, Nov 5
As of Thursday, November 5, the Washington Capitals have a 55.8% chance to make the playoffs, down 0.6 points since yesterday, and a 4.5% chance to win the Metropolitan. They project to 95 points (likely 84 to 107), from 10,000 simulations.
Not yet in their own hands
At their current points %
Opponents' points %, 19th hardest of 32
Who should Caps fans root for tonight?
Change in Caps playoff odds if your pick wins in regulation instead of losing in regulation, Thu, Nov 5.
Root for Hurricanes over Islanders+1.5
Root for Blues over Devils+1.1
Root for Stars over Blue Jackets+1.0
Root for Flyers over Rangers+0.6
Root for Golden Knights over Red Wings+0.4
Root for Bruins over Penguins+0.4
Root for Mammoth over Canadiens+0.3
Root for Blackhawks over Lightning+0.2
Canucks at JetsBarely matters
Ducks at OilersBarely matters
Predators at AvalancheBarely mattersEastern Conference playoff race
Playoff picture| # | Team | GP | Pts | Playoffs | 1 day | Div | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes | 17 | 26 | 99% | −0.1 | 80% | 114 |
| 2 |  Lightning | 14 | 20 | 89% | −0.2 | 31% | 107 |
| 3 | Bruins | 16 | 23 | 88% | −1.0 | 26% | 107 |
| 4 |  Canadiens | 15 | 21 | 88% | −0.5 | 26% | 107 |
| 5 |  Devils | 15 | 20 | 73% | +0.7 | 10% | 99 |
| 6 |  Senators | 17 | 21 | 63% | +7.8 | 7% | 99 |
| 7 |  Sabres | 15 | 17 | 61% | −11.8 | 6% | 99 |
| 8 |  Capitals | 14 | 16 | 56% | −0.6 | 5% | 95 |
| 9 |  Islanders | 14 | 16 | 46% | −0.7 | 3% | 94 |
| 10 |  Panthers | 16 | 20 | 42% | +7.3 | 3% | 95 |
| 11 |  Red Wings | 16 | 17 | 23% | −0.3 | <1% | 90 |
| 12 |  Blue Jackets | 13 | 12 | 21% | +0.6 | <1% | 87 |
| 13 |  Rangers | 16 | 17 | 20% | +0.3 | <1% | 87 |
| 14 |  Maple Leafs | 17 | 18 | 13% | −0.3 | <1% | 87 |
| 15 |  Penguins | 15 | 12 | 12% | −0.7 | <1% | 84 |
| 16 | Flyers | 17 | 12 | 5% | −0.5 | <1% | 80 |
Sorted by playoff odds. GP and points from the official NHL standings; odds, division-title chances and projected points from the Tonight.hockey model. “1 day” is the change in playoff odds since yesterday, in percentage points.
Capitals playoff chances and magic number
- What are the Capitals' playoff chances?
- As of Thursday, November 5, the Washington Capitals have a 55.8% chance to make the playoffs (down 0.6 points since yesterday) and a 4.5% chance to win the Metropolitan Division, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
- What is the Capitals' magic number?
- The Caps cannot clinch on their own yet: guaranteeing a spot would take more than the 140 points left in their 70 games, so it still depends on other results.
- How many points will the Capitals finish with?
- The model projects about 95 points, with 84 to 107 as the likely range (10th to 90th percentile). At their current points percentage they would finish with 96.
- How hard is the Capitals' remaining schedule?
- Their 70 remaining opponents have an average points percentage of 0.549 in the official standings, the 19th hardest remaining schedule of 32 teams. Early in the season this moves a lot.
- Who should Capitals fans root for tonight?
- The game that matters most is Hurricanes at Islanders: root for the Hurricanes, worth +1.5 points of playoff odds compared with a Islanders regulation win.
Updated from official NHL results; odds hold still for the day and move after each night's games. How the playoff model works · Caps schedule · Caps tonight