Make the playoffs · as of Thu, Nov 5
As of Thursday, November 5, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 13.4% chance to make the playoffs, down 0.3 points since yesterday, and a 0.3% chance to win the Atlantic. They project to 87 points (likely 76 to 98), from 10,000 simulations.
Not yet in their own hands
At their current points %
Opponents' points %, 6th hardest of 32
Who should Leafs fans root for tonight?
Change in Leafs playoff odds if your pick wins in regulation instead of losing in regulation, Thu, Nov 5.
Root for Golden Knights over Red Wings+0.5
Root for Mammoth over Canadiens+0.4
Root for Hurricanes over Islanders+0.2
Root for Blackhawks over Lightning+0.2
Root for Penguins over Bruins+0.2
Root for Blues over Devils+0.1
Root for Stars over Blue Jackets+0.1
Root for Flyers over Rangers+0.1
Canucks at JetsBarely matters
Ducks at OilersBarely matters
Predators at AvalancheBarely mattersEastern Conference playoff race
Playoff picture| # | Team | GP | Pts | Playoffs | 1 day | Div | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes | 17 | 26 | 99% | −0.1 | 80% | 114 |
| 2 |  Lightning | 14 | 20 | 89% | −0.2 | 31% | 107 |
| 3 |  Bruins | 16 | 23 | 88% | −1.0 | 26% | 107 |
| 4 |  Canadiens | 15 | 21 | 88% | −0.5 | 26% | 107 |
| 5 |  Devils | 15 | 20 | 73% | +0.7 | 10% | 99 |
| 6 |  Senators | 17 | 21 | 63% | +7.8 | 7% | 99 |
| 7 |  Sabres | 15 | 17 | 61% | −11.8 | 6% | 99 |
| 8 |  Capitals | 14 | 16 | 56% | −0.6 | 5% | 95 |
| 9 |  Islanders | 14 | 16 | 46% | −0.7 | 3% | 94 |
| 10 |  Panthers | 16 | 20 | 42% | +7.3 | 3% | 95 |
| 11 |  Red Wings | 16 | 17 | 23% | −0.3 | <1% | 90 |
| 12 |  Blue Jackets | 13 | 12 | 21% | +0.6 | <1% | 87 |
| 13 |  Rangers | 16 | 17 | 20% | +0.3 | <1% | 87 |
| 14 |  Maple Leafs | 17 | 18 | 13% | −0.3 | <1% | 87 |
| 15 | Penguins | 15 | 12 | 12% | −0.7 | <1% | 84 |
| 16 | Flyers | 17 | 12 | 5% | −0.5 | <1% | 80 |
Sorted by playoff odds. GP and points from the official NHL standings; odds, division-title chances and projected points from the Tonight.hockey model. “1 day” is the change in playoff odds since yesterday, in percentage points.
Maple Leafs playoff chances and magic number
- What are the Maple Leafs' playoff chances?
- As of Thursday, November 5, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 13.4% chance to make the playoffs (down 0.3 points since yesterday) and a 0.3% chance to win the Atlantic Division, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
- What is the Maple Leafs' magic number?
- The Leafs cannot clinch on their own yet: guaranteeing a spot would take more than the 134 points left in their 67 games, so it still depends on other results.
- How many points will the Maple Leafs finish with?
- The model projects about 87 points, with 76 to 98 as the likely range (10th to 90th percentile). At their current points percentage they would finish with 89.
- How hard is the Maple Leafs' remaining schedule?
- Their 67 remaining opponents have an average points percentage of 0.569 in the official standings, the 6th hardest remaining schedule of 32 teams. Early in the season this moves a lot.
- Who should Maple Leafs fans root for tonight?
- The game that matters most is Golden Knights at Red Wings: root for the Golden Knights, worth +0.5 points of playoff odds compared with a Red Wings regulation win.
Updated from official NHL results; odds hold still for the day and move after each night's games. How the playoff model works · Leafs schedule · Leafs tonight