Make the playoffs · as of Thu, Nov 5
As of Thursday, November 5, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 89.1% chance to make the playoffs, down 0.2 points since yesterday, and a 30.6% chance to win the Atlantic. They project to 107 points (likely 96 to 118), from 10,000 simulations.
Points to guarantee a spot
At their current points %
Opponents' points %, 10th hardest of 32
Who should Bolts fans root for tonight?
Change in Bolts playoff odds if your pick wins in regulation instead of losing in regulation, Thu, Nov 5.
Bolts vs Blackhawks+3.8
Root for Golden Knights over Red Wings+0.5
Root for Mammoth over Canadiens+0.3
Root for Stars over Blue Jackets+0.2
Root for Blues over Devils+0.2
Root for Hurricanes over Islanders+0.2
Root for Penguins over Bruins+0.1
Flyers at RangersBarely matters
Canucks at JetsBarely matters
Ducks at OilersBarely matters
Predators at AvalancheBarely mattersEastern Conference playoff race
Playoff picture| # | Team | GP | Pts | Playoffs | 1 day | Div | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes | 17 | 26 | 99% | −0.1 | 80% | 114 |
| 2 | Lightning | 14 | 20 | 89% | −0.2 | 31% | 107 |
| 3 |  Bruins | 16 | 23 | 88% | −1.0 | 26% | 107 |
| 4 |  Canadiens | 15 | 21 | 88% | −0.5 | 26% | 107 |
| 5 |  Devils | 15 | 20 | 73% | +0.7 | 10% | 99 |
| 6 |  Senators | 17 | 21 | 63% | +7.8 | 7% | 99 |
| 7 |  Sabres | 15 | 17 | 61% | −11.8 | 6% | 99 |
| 8 |  Capitals | 14 | 16 | 56% | −0.6 | 5% | 95 |
| 9 |  Islanders | 14 | 16 | 46% | −0.7 | 3% | 94 |
| 10 |  Panthers | 16 | 20 | 42% | +7.3 | 3% | 95 |
| 11 |  Red Wings | 16 | 17 | 23% | −0.3 | <1% | 90 |
| 12 |  Blue Jackets | 13 | 12 | 21% | +0.6 | <1% | 87 |
| 13 |  Rangers | 16 | 17 | 20% | +0.3 | <1% | 87 |
| 14 |  Maple Leafs | 17 | 18 | 13% | −0.3 | <1% | 87 |
| 15 | Penguins | 15 | 12 | 12% | −0.7 | <1% | 84 |
| 16 | Flyers | 17 | 12 | 5% | −0.5 | <1% | 80 |
Sorted by playoff odds. GP and points from the official NHL standings; odds, division-title chances and projected points from the Tonight.hockey model. “1 day” is the change in playoff odds since yesterday, in percentage points.
Lightning playoff chances and magic number
- What are the Lightning' playoff chances?
- As of Thursday, November 5, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 89.1% chance to make the playoffs (down 0.2 points since yesterday) and a 30.6% chance to win the Atlantic Division, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
- What is the Lightning' magic number?
- The Bolts need 137 more points to guarantee a playoff spot whatever anyone else does (tiebreakers ignored, so it is slightly conservative). They have 70 games left.
- How many points will the Lightning finish with?
- The model projects about 107 points, with 96 to 118 as the likely range (10th to 90th percentile). At their current points percentage they would finish with 120.
- How hard is the Lightning' remaining schedule?
- Their 70 remaining opponents have an average points percentage of 0.564 in the official standings, the 10th hardest remaining schedule of 32 teams. Early in the season this moves a lot.
- Who should Lightning fans root for tonight?
- The game that matters most is Golden Knights at Red Wings: root for the Golden Knights, worth +0.5 points of playoff odds compared with a Red Wings regulation win.
Updated from official NHL results; odds hold still for the day and move after each night's games. How the playoff model works · Bolts schedule · Bolts tonight