Make the playoffs · as of Thu, Nov 5
As of Thursday, November 5, the Edmonton Oilers have a 98.2% chance to make the playoffs, unchanged since yesterday, and a 68.6% chance to win the Pacific. They project to 111 points (likely 100 to 122), from 10,000 simulations.
Points to guarantee a spot
At their current points %
Opponents' points %, 30th hardest of 32
Who should Oilers fans root for tonight?
Change in Oilers playoff odds if your pick wins in regulation instead of losing in regulation, Thu, Nov 5.
Oilers vs Ducks+1.2
Mammoth at CanadiensBarely matters
Predators at AvalancheBarely matters
Golden Knights at Red WingsBarely matters
Blues at DevilsBarely matters
Canucks at JetsBarely matters
Blackhawks at LightningBarely matters
Hurricanes at IslandersBarely matters
Flyers at RangersBarely matters
Bruins at PenguinsBarely matters
Stars at Blue JacketsBarely mattersWestern Conference playoff race
Playoff picture| # | Team | GP | Pts | Playoffs | 1 day | Div | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oilers | 16 | 25 | 98% | 0.0 | 69% | 111 |
| 2 |  Wild | 17 | 25 | 98% | −0.1 | 51% | 111 |
| 3 |  Stars | 15 | 19 | 92% | −0.5 | 20% | 105 |
| 4 | Avalanche | 16 | 19 | 91% | −0.5 | 19% | 104 |
| 5 |  Golden Knights | 17 | 22 | 87% | −0.3 | 20% | 102 |
| 6 |  Mammoth | 16 | 20 | 78% | +0.4 | 7% | 99 |
| 7 |  Kraken | 15 | 19 | 67% | +6.8 | 7% | 96 |
| 8 |  Predators | 15 | 17 | 52% | −0.2 | 2% | 94 |
| 9 |  Ducks | 15 | 15 | 40% | −0.6 | 3% | 90 |
| 10 |  Blues | 15 | 15 | 31% | −1.2 | <1% | 89 |
| 11 |  Kings | 14 | 12 | 23% | +6.3 | <1% | 86 |
| 12 |  Flames | 16 | 15 | 18% | −0.1 | <1% | 84 |
| 13 |  Sharks | 17 | 15 | 16% | −9.0 | <1% | 84 |
| 14 |  Jets | 16 | 13 | 8% | −0.5 | <1% | 81 |
| 15 |  Blackhawks | 16 | 9 | <1% | −0.3 | 0% | 69 |
| 16 | Canucks | 17 | 7 | <1% | 0.0 | 0% | 59 |
Sorted by playoff odds. GP and points from the official NHL standings; odds, division-title chances and projected points from the Tonight.hockey model. “1 day” is the change in playoff odds since yesterday, in percentage points.
Oilers playoff chances and magic number
- What are the Oilers' playoff chances?
- As of Thursday, November 5, the Edmonton Oilers have a 98.2% chance to make the playoffs (unchanged since yesterday) and a 68.6% chance to win the Pacific Division, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
- What is the Oilers' magic number?
- The Oilers need 132 more points to guarantee a playoff spot whatever anyone else does (tiebreakers ignored, so it is slightly conservative). They have 68 games left.
- How many points will the Oilers finish with?
- The model projects about 111 points, with 100 to 122 as the likely range (10th to 90th percentile). At their current points percentage they would finish with 131.
- How hard is the Oilers' remaining schedule?
- Their 68 remaining opponents have an average points percentage of 0.537 in the official standings, the 30th hardest remaining schedule of 32 teams. Early in the season this moves a lot.
- Who should Oilers fans root for tonight?
- Nothing else tonight moves the Oilers' odds by even a tenth of a point.
Updated from official NHL results; odds hold still for the day and move after each night's games. How the playoff model works · Oilers schedule · Oilers tonight